At this year’s TecCom Community Meeting DACH 2025, participants gathered to explore the evolving landscape of the automotive aftermarket. One of the key highlights was the insightful presentation by Maximilian Wegner, Principal at Roland Berger, titled “Automotive Aftermarket 2025+: Challenges and Opportunities.”
In his presentation, Maximilian Wegner shared detailed market data showing that the European automotive aftermarket continues to grow, though no longer at the rapid pace seen in previous years.
According to Roland Berger’s analysis, the market is expected to increase from around EUR 52 billion in 2019 to approximately EUR 79 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of about 2.3% projected for the period 2025–2030.
At the same time, the car parc is expanding further and is forecasted to reach around 390 million vehicles by 2030, while the average vehicle age continues to climb — from 10.5 years in 2019 to an expected 13.6 years by 2030.
With this growth comes a noticeable rise in market complexity. Wegner highlighted several factors contributing to this: a growing mix of different powertrain types, rapid advancements in ADAS technologies, tighter sustainability requirements, the market entry of new OEMs (including several from China), and the increasing share of leasing and fleet vehicles. All of this leads to more parts variants, higher expectations for immediate availability, a wider range of quality and price options, and mounting pressure on margins and operational processes across the industry.
Rising Complexity Meets Digital Opportunity
To navigate this rising complexity, digitalization and data analytics are becoming more critical than ever. Wegner emphasized that forecasting plays a central role. Compared to other industries, forecasting accuracy in the automotive aftermarket is traditionally lower due to the enormous number of parts, fluctuating demand patterns, and high product diversity. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to costly inefficiencies, ranging from excess inventory to lost sales opportunities due to supply shortages, and significant supply chain costs.
The key is to fully leverage data across the entire value chain, from OEMs and suppliers to distributors, workshops, and even vehicle owners. Only when this data is properly selected, cleaned, and processed can businesses achieve accurate demand predictions, operate more efficiently, and deliver better service to customers.
According to Wegner, mastering complexity and driving value chain performance in the Automotive Aftermarket requires focus on three key areas:
- Smarter forecasting – anticipating demand more accurately to reduce waste and improve availability.
- Optimised logistics – streamlining supply chains for faster, more efficient delivery.
- Data-driven operations – using insights and analytics to make better, faster business decisions.
A Shared Vision for an Evolving Market
The TecCom Community Meeting DACH 2025 once again demonstrated the value of collaboration and knowledge exchange across the independent aftermarket. Roland Berger’s keynote reinforced that while the future may bring more complexity, it also presents exciting opportunities for innovation, digital transformation, and closer industry partnerships.